Sow Herd Reduction Amid Market Uncertainty
“The global sow herd is likely to decline in 2026 as the industry faces increasing uncertainty,” Rabobank experts said. The main driver behind this decline is China’s plan to reduce its sow herd by 1 million head.
Currently, pork prices in China have fallen by 42% year-on-year, putting pressure on producers. However, the expected herd reduction is projected to stabilize market prices in the near future.
Global Pork Trade: Brazil Expands Despite Geopolitical Risks
Rabobank also forecasts that global pork trade will remain volatile in 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. By the end of 2025, trade volumes are expected to stay roughly in line with 2024 levels or slightly exceed them.
Brazil continues to be the main beneficiary, having increased its share of global pork exports from 12% to 15%, while in September 2025 the country reached record export levels in its history.
Herd Health Challenges Persist
Despite the anticipated improvement in herd health, viral diseases remain a significant concern. Rabobank highlights three key threats: PRRS (Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus), PED (Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus), and ASF (African Swine Fever Virus).
In Vietnam, pork prices have plummeted following a new wave of ASF outbreaks, triggering panic selling among farmers.
In contrast, the Philippines has seen rising prices due to limited supply. As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the country’s pig population totaled 9.01 million head, representing a 5% decrease compared to the previous year.
Outlook
Rabobank expects that China’s herd reduction will help rebalance global supply and demand, while Brazil, the United States, and the European Union will remain key players in international pork exports.
At the same time, analysts caution that the sector must stay prepared for price volatility and emerging biosecurity threats, even as overall herd health and production performance show gradual improvement.
PigUA.info based on materials from pigprogress.net