According to estimates by the analytical centre Cepea, Brazilian pork exports in 2026 could reach around 1.44 million tonnes, up 6.3% year on year. This would further strengthen Brazil’s position among the world’s leading pork exporters: since 2023, the country has consistently ranked third globally.
Experts expect the opening and consolidation of new export markets, as well as growth in the overall value of exports. The Philippines are expected to remain the main destination, with purchases of Brazilian pork projected to increase by a further 7% in 2026.
At the same time, shipments to China — Brazil’s second-largest export market — are likely to continue declining. This reflects weaker demand from China in recent years. From the peak levels of 2021 to preliminary data for 2025, Brazilian pork exports to China have fallen by more than 70%.
In the Americas, Mexico is expected to maintain growing demand. The country is currently the world’s largest pork importer, and new trade agreements between Brazil and Mexico are expected to support further increases in shipments.
On the domestic market, pork prices in Brazil are forecast to remain elevated in 2026, as in 2025, supported by steady demand. According to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association, per capita pork consumption is expected to rise to 19.5 kg in 2026, up 2.5% compared to the previous year.
To meet both domestic and export demand, Cepea forecasts a 4% increase in pork production to 5.88 million tonnes in 2026. Analysts also anticipate favourable conditions for producer profitability, primarily driven by strong live hog prices.
Although corn and soybean meal prices may rise — particularly in the first half of the year — large opening stocks and expectations of good harvests should limit sharp increases in feed costs and help keep production expenses at a relatively comfortable level for the sector.
PigUA.info, based on materials from thepigsite.com