On 7 August, the United States raised the general tariff on Canadian imports not covered by the CUSMA (Canada–United States–Mexico) agreement from 25% to 35%. Additional tariffs were also imposed on other US trading partners.
According to Marchand, Canadian live hog prices are directly linked to US prices through a special formula. Therefore, any losses incurred by the US in foreign pork markets due to tariff responses from other countries will quickly affect the incomes of Canadian producers.
‘It is good that these new duties apply to goods outside the scope of the USMCA/CUSMA agreement, so the North American pork sector is currently largely protected,’ the expert noted. At the same time, he warned that prolonged tariff restrictions could lead to imbalances in supply and demand, and if American pork is targeted by the measures, a fall in prices in Canada will be inevitable.
Mexico, which is currently the largest buyer of pork from the United States and remains within the CUSMA, plays a special role in the situation. This somewhat mitigates the negative impact on the market. At present, the response measures are limited to threats, but further developments could change the balance.
Marchand stressed that if key importers begin to perceive the US as an unreliable supplier, they may switch to other exporters. Brazil has already surpassed the US in terms of pork supplies to the Philippines, although a direct link with tariff policy has not yet been established.
PigUA.info based on materials from swineweb.com