According to analysts, since the escalation at the end of February, prices for soybean meal and corn—key feed ingredients—have reached multi-month highs on the Dalian exchange. This has been driven by rising oil prices, higher logistics costs, and increased fertilizer prices.
In March, spot prices for soybean meal in China rose by more than 200 yuan per ton (+7%), while corn increased by around 100 yuan (+4%). At the same time, other feed components also became more expensive, including amino acids (lysine and methionine), fishmeal, and vitamins A and E, with increases ranging from 6% to 77%.
This comes amid a deep crisis in pork prices. Live hog prices in China have fallen to their lowest level in 16 years, with cash prices at around 9.69 yuan/kg (USD 1.34–1.40/kg). Meanwhile, the cost of raising pigs weighing 60–62.5 kg has reached 12.2–12.5 yuan/kg (USD 1.68–1.72/kg), resulting in losses of approximately 280–350 yuan (USD 38–48) per animal.
Small-scale producers remain the most vulnerable, accounting for less than 30% of China’s pork production. Due to high price volatility, some of them risk being forced out of the market.
The situation is further complicated by structural oversupply. Chinese authorities are already tightening production controls, urging producers to reduce sow herds and manage slaughter volumes. At the same time, the government is purchasing pork for state reserves to stabilize prices.
According to analysts, future market developments will largely depend on how aggressively producers reduce herd sizes and whether supply and demand can be rebalanced.
PigUA.info based on materials from reuters.com