July is traditionally a month of stability or even growth for the Spanish live pig market. However, this year the situation has changed dramatically: prices have fallen sharply, with three consecutive weeks of declines (-0.02 €/kg, -0.017 €/kg, -0.02 €/kg). This trend broke the established patterns and forced market participants to wonder: what went wrong?
Production is growing — consumption is stagnant
In the first half of 2025, approximately 3% more pigs were slaughtered in the EU than last year. In addition, the average carcass weight has increased. All this means only one thing: there is more meat. However, domestic demand is not growing, and export activity is under pressure due to the strengthening of the euro and Brazil's aggressive expansion. As a result, the market is oversaturated with pork and there are no channels for its sale.
Germany was the first to take action
On 2 July, the price of carcasses in Germany fell by 15 euro cents per kilogram. This move had a domino effect — neighbouring countries began to lower their pig prices, and Spain was no exception. At that time, the difference in live weight between German and Spanish prices was an impressive €0.28/kg, or more than €30 per 116-kilogram animal. This situation was economically disadvantageous for Spanish slaughterhouses, and the market adjusted.
Exports — the only lifeline
Spain is the European leader in pig slaughtering, but exports more than half of its production. Exports have become vital for market stability. If foreign supplies slow down or lose competitiveness, the industry finds itself on the brink of survival.
Slaughtering is more unprofitable than ever
Prices for meat cuts (in particular, loins and shoulders) have also fallen, deepening the losses of Spanish meat processing plants. The author of the publication, Guillem Burset, notes that in the 29th week of the year, processors' losses were record-breaking — Spain has never seen such losses before.
Where is this decline leading?
According to the analyst, prices for pigs and meat will continue to fall until they reach a stable ‘bottom’. No one knows when this will happen. Several factors are putting pressure on the situation:
- Brazil is selling cheaper, displacing European meat from third-country markets;
- Germany sets the tone for the Northern European market, influencing pricing;
- The strengthening of the euro complicates exports;
- The EU is saturated with pork and is unable to ‘absorb’ the surplus.
Even if the US — in the event of the implementation of a new tariff policy — starts buying more European meat, this will only partially compensate for the losses, and even then only in the long term.
It's time to act with a cool head
In conclusion, Burset quotes world chess champion Magnus Carlsen:
‘It's not about playing a perfect game — it's about playing better than your opponent.’
For Spanish pig farming, this means one thing: adaptation, sober calculation and quick response to changes are the only way to survive this period of uncertainty.
PigUA.info based on materials from pig333.com