United States: Firm Prices Despite Export Challenges
In the U.S., pig prices remain strong due to reduced production and resilient consumer demand. The tight beef supply and inflationary pressures have also increased pork demand. Forecasts suggest a slight decline in pork production in 2025, with the USDA projecting 12.7 million tonnes—a 1% drop year-over-year (YoY). For January to March, production was slightly lower due to reduced slaughter volumes, despite heavier carcass weights.
The U.S. remains the world’s second-largest pork exporter after the EU, shipping 3 million tonnes in 2024. From January to April 2025, exports of pork and offal were down 4% YoY, totaling 1.03 million tonnes. Losses were recorded in Canada and most major Asian markets, including China, due to tariffs and uncompetitive pricing. However, exports to Mexico—the U.S.'s top pork market—increased slightly on the back of strong demand.
In April, U.S. exports were hit hard by retaliatory tariffs and limited Chinese export licenses. While Q1 exports to China were strong as traders rushed to move product ahead of tariff hikes, a June “trade truce” brought some relief. Under the deal, triple-digit tariffs were reduced and additional U.S. pork plants were granted export approval. Despite this, U.S. pork (especially offal, for which the U.S. is China’s top supplier) remains largely uncompetitive. The market continues to be vulnerable to geopolitical volatility.
Canada: Exports Offset Higher Production
In Canada, pig prices are also trending upward. Strong export performance has helped balance out unexpectedly high Q1 production levels. Softer feed prices and a weaker Canadian dollar are improving producer margins.
Canadian pork exports (including offal) rose by 4% YoY in the first four months of 2025, reaching 491,100 tonnes. Growth was particularly strong in Asian markets such as Japan and South Korea, as well as in Mexico. Shipments to the U.S. declined by 7%. Canada was the fourth-largest pork exporter globally in 2024, shipping 1.3 million tonnes.
Pork production in Canada is expected to rise modestly in 2025 due to stronger producer returns and a drop in live pig shipments to the U.S.
Mexico: Tight Supply Keeps Prices High
Mexican pig prices remain firm due to limited supply. Although production was slightly up in Q1 2025, ongoing disease challenges are constraining further growth. This trend is expected to persist through the summer, supporting high price levels. The USDA forecasts Mexican pig slaughter to grow modestly in 2025 (+2% YoY), encouraged by favorable margins and high market prices.
Mexico’s pork imports surged 14% YoY in Q1 2025, totaling 437,000 tonnes. Most of the growth came from the U.S., despite ongoing tariff risks. However, Mexico has also diversified its import sources, bringing in more pork from Canada and Brazil. In 2024, Mexico was the world’s second-largest pork importer (after China), with nearly 1.5 million tonnes imported.
Outlook: Opportunities and Risks Ahead
The interdependence of the U.S., Canadian, and Mexican pork sectors means market shocks can ripple across the region. Although the current outlook is bullish, risks remain—from disease outbreaks to geopolitical tensions.
Ongoing trade disruptions between the U.S. and China could pressure global prices as surplus U.S. pork seeks new markets. This may intensify competition in key export destinations but also present opportunities for alternative suppliers, particularly for offal in China. At the same time, constrained U.S. supply may help stabilize the market and prevent oversupply.
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