According to Quality Meat Scotland (QMS), the modest recovery in prices in September was not enough to offset higher feed, fuel and borrowing costs. As a result, producer margins are likely to have continued to narrow.
Further pressure is coming from higher pig slaughter weights. The increase between August and September was unusually strong for this time of year. Although heavier carcases increase the value of individual animals, the resulting higher production volumes also add to the supply imbalance.
Scotland has also seen an increase in the number of pigs leaving farms for slaughter, while slaughterhouse throughput has recovered following a weaker period. However, the sharp rise in sow culling is causing particular concern.
According to QMS estimates, sow slaughter has increased by 52% compared with 2025, pointing to a potentially significant reduction in pig supply in Scotland in 2027 and possible consequences across the entire pork production chain.
Competition from Cheaper EU Pork
The situation in Scotland is part of a broader imbalance in the global market. Pig prices have fallen year on year in key markets, including the United States, China and Brazil, while increased supply in the EU is intensifying competition for British producers.
In the final week of September, pig prices in the UK were 37.5% higher than in the EU, making it more difficult for domestic producers to compete with imported pork.
UK pork production increased by around 5% in 2026. At the same time, overall market supply was lower due to reduced imports and higher exports. However, even this was not enough to drive a noticeable increase in prices, indicating weak demand.
QMS expects short-term conditions for producers to remain challenging. Some improvement may be possible if production declines and demand recovers, but the high level of sow slaughter is already creating the conditions for a significant reduction in Scottish pork production in 2027.
PigUA.info, based on materials from euromeatnews.com