According to updated estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global pork production in 2026 will increase by approximately 0.6% to 120.2 million tonnes. The main drivers will be the United States, Brazil, China, and Canada, offsetting the anticipated decline in the European Union.
In particular, EU production is projected to fall by 1.2% to 21.7 million tonnes, amid tighter margins and the impact of ASF detected in Spain at the end of 2025. This will also limit the region’s export potential, with EU shipments expected to decline by 7.6% to 2.8 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, Brazil (+3.2%) and the United States (+1.4%) are set to expand production, supported by favourable feed availability and strong external demand. Brazilian exports could rise by 6.8% to 1.8 million tonnes, while U.S. shipments are expected to grow by 3.3% to 3.3 million tonnes, increasingly targeting markets in Mexico and Central America.
China, the world’s largest pork producer, is expected to post only marginal production growth to 59.5 million tonnes (+0.2%), while significantly reducing imports by 15.8% to 1.0 million tonnes due to ample domestic supply. This shift is prompting major exporters to seek alternative markets, particularly in Asia.
Overall, global pork exports are forecast to remain nearly unchanged at around 10.4 million tonnes (+0.5%), while imports will increase to 9.3 million tonnes (+0.9%). Global consumption is also expected to rise slightly, reaching 119.1 million tonnes.
Thus, the global pork market in 2026 will be characterized by a balance between production growth in key countries and regional risks—particularly epizootic factors—that will continue to shape trade flows and demand patterns.
PigUA.info, based on pig333.com