In its latest short-term outlook, the European Commission notes that actual slaughter figures in 2026 have been higher than previously expected. Although pig slaughter in the second half of the year is forecast to remain below last year’s level, the decline is expected to be less pronounced than projected in the spring.
As a result, the annual production forecast has been revised upwards by 1.5 percentage points — from an expected 1% decline to growth of 0.5%.
Exports to China Could Fall by 32%
The outlook for external trade remains more challenging. The European Commission forecasts that EU pork exports will decline by 0.5% in 2026 to just under 2.97 million tonnes.
The sharpest decline is expected in shipments to China, which are forecast to fall by 32%. Growth in exports to other destinations is expected to offset this only partially.
In particular, shipments to South Korea are forecast to increase by 53%.
African swine fever (ASF) remains one of the factors continuing to affect international trade and market sentiment.
Consumption to Remain Almost Unchanged
Average pork consumption in the EU is expected to increase slightly in 2026, from 33.0 to 33.2 kg per capita, according to the Commission.
The self-sufficiency rate is expected to remain almost unchanged, easing from 115.4% in 2025 to 115.2% in 2026.
This means the EU will continue to produce more pork than it consumes on the internal market.
PigUA.info, based on materials from euromeatnews.com