The European Commission forecasts a slight decline in pork production in the EU in 2026. According to experts’ estimates, production volumes in the EU-27 countries will decrease by approximately 1% to 21.76 million tonnes.
The main reason cited is the reduction in the sow population recorded during the latest livestock census in many EU member states. This, in turn, is expected to lead to lower slaughter numbers. At the same time, the EU’s pork self-sufficiency rate is projected to remain stable at around 115%, allowing the bloc to maintain its status as a net exporter.
However, pork exports are also expected to decline by around 3% in 2026. One of the key factors behind this is the impact of the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak detected in Spain at the end of November 2025. Following the outbreak, several third countries imposed restrictions on imports of Spanish pork.
Although some deliveries have resumed under regionalisation agreements, trade flows have already shifted. Larger volumes of Spanish pork have remained within the EU market, creating additional supply pressure and contributing to lower prices compared to 2025 levels.
The European Commission also expects a further decline in pork consumption. After stabilizing during the previous two years and even increasing by 3.4% in 2025, per capita consumption is forecast to fall by 0.9% in 2026 to 32.6 kg per person.
In the longer term, this would mean that pork consumption in the EU will be around 2 kg, or 5.7%, lower than it was 20 years ago.
Overall, the European pork market in 2026 is expected to be shaped by several simultaneous factors — a shrinking production base, the consequences of ASF, shifts in trade flows, and gradually declining consumption.
PigUA.info, based on euromeatnews.com